Six Supertrends: What Does the Future Hold?

Are you really strategic? What to do some "think-tank" type of thinking? Well here is your chance. Edward Cornish, in his book Futuring: The Exploration of the Future talks about Six Supertrends. I find this kind of reading facsinating and certainly deserving of some thought for the future of HR. So lets take a look. These SUPER TRENDS include:

1. Technological Progress. Yeah I know what you are thinking "Ho-hum, we have had that forever." But have you ever really sat down and thought about the implications for your job, your company and you personally? Obviously the Industrial Revolution and the ongoing Cybernetic Revolution have had significant impacts on business and personal lives. What will the world look like in a Biotechnology Revolution and then again in Nanotechnology Revolution? These are not far off. In fact here is a list of companies involved in Nanotechnology. How is this going to change the face of HR?
2. Economic Growth. Well this one seems a bit thin at the moment, but that is just part of the long-term cycle of growth. In the long-term people will be richer, the standard of living across the world will be higher and the desire to accumulate will grown. What impact will this have on you, your employees and the goods and services your company offers?
3. Improving Health. Face it, we are going to live longer and healthier. This means that they may want to work longer. And stay on healthcare (whatever form it takes) longer. How will  you have to change things to accommodate people being around another 10 years?
4. Increasing Mobility. Increased health, increased wealth, increased transportation all translate into people moving around more. And people are not the only thing that will have increased mobility. Goods and information (although I have a hard time imaging info moving faster) will move at a much accelerated pace. This all means a SMALLER GLOBE. But it may also mean social and cultural changes with a resulting impact on families and communities.
5. Environmental Decline. Let's face it. People are SLOBS! There are more messy bedrooms than there are clean ones and this has become a global phenomenon. If there is not some reversal (clean your "room" or there will be no dinner) all our beach vacations will come ready made with a coating of oil. (Perhaps not a bad thing. Built in sunscreen for the depleted ozone layer?)
6. Increasing Deculturation. This means a loss of traditional culture. This deculturation may mean changes in languages, adapation of behaviors and much more. A much bigger mixture than we have experienced to date. How can you adapted to the good and bad of this?

So there you have it. How are these going to change you? If you wish to read the book you can find it here.

Status is in KNOWING: Are You Aware of This Trend?

The other day on DriveThruHR I talked about the importance of paying attention to the "future" for HR. Listen Here One to the trend newsletters I read, TrendWatching.com recently talked about what they called the "Statusphere". They defined that as:
"STATUSPHERE: As consumers are starting to recognize and respect fellow consumers who stray off the beaten consuming-more-than-thou-path, 'new' status can be about acquired skills, about eco-credentials, about generosity, about connectivity... All of this makes for a far more diversified 'STATUSPHERE' than most brands and organizations have traditionally catered to. Time to really figure out how and where your customers are now finding their status fix."

They defined five areas that they thought today's consumers would be seeking status. One of these I thought was particularly relevant to human resources. That is the trend toward seeking status in:
"... find(ing)  pleasure (and STATUS STORIES) in mastering skills and acquiring knowledge. They attain status from finding an appreciative audience that's impressed with what they know, and can create, instead of what they consume."

In HR we are always looking for ways to reward and motivate employees. Perhaps, knowing this trend, you can identify employees (consumers) who like the status of knowing and learning. You can direct their work experiences around being the acknowledged expert in the department.

Think about it. Do you have knowledge status seekers working for you? Are you paying attention to that need and interest? Money doesn't always have to be the reward.

Back to the Future Part II

You got lucky! Yesterday I presented 5 trends from 2002 and commented on them in 2008. I said I would present another 5 today. Well I miss counted. There were only 8 to begin with so you will only have to look at 3 today. Here we go.

Trend #6 (from HRNext's 2002 trend projection)
Acquisitions and mergers. Many companies are merging as the sluggish economy lingers, and affected HR managers will need to figure out how to merge payroll, handbooks, policies and cultures. It's important to keep key talent during mergers, so affected HR managers will play a strategic role in the process.

This is as important today as it was in 2002. The key point to this is that HR needs to be involved in this FROM THE BEGINNING. These mergers and acquisitions are being made from a financial perspective and then HR is dragged in to help straighten out the mess of the people side. It would help if HR was involved from the get-go. Perhaps some of the issues could be avoided. Mergers to watch: Delta and Northwest, banks, and now GM and Chrysler.

Trend #7
The aging workforce. As the 'Boomers' get gray, more and more of the workforce will continue to go the same way. Furthermore, better health care is extending lives and many feel up to working well into their sixties and seventies. Still others have to keep working because they failed to save enough for retirement, or saw retirement assets shrink in the stock market. HR managers will need to be wary of issues related to recruiting, hiring and employing older workers without discriminating against them, or appearing to.

Well the 'Boomers' have not gotten any younger in the last 6 years, so all those issues of dealing with older workers still exist. Additionally, in the past six years, we have had an influx of Gen Y'ers. This age diversity in the workplace has presented HR and management a challenge and will continue to do so. Relationships, promotional tracks, reward systems and more will be challenged by this age diversity.

Trend #8
Technology. HR Departments will make better use of the Internet and intranets, to store, organize and disseminate information to employees as well as implement self-service technology to reduce HR costs. The Web will continue to become an important tool for HR Departments, but one that can be difficult to implement.

Use of the Internet and technology has increased tremendously. One of the major shifts has been in the importance of social networking sites. They are no longer just the domain of teenagers. Facebook, LinkedIn and others are now becoming sources and resources for HR departments in looking for and keeping track of employees. The use of these sites for recruitment and background checks has caused some issues of a legal natures. For example, does checking out a Facebook page or doing a Google search as a reference check violate the Fair Credit Reporting Act. It also causes some potential performance issues. Does your employee being connected to others on Twitter help productivity or hinder productivity? How does the manager control this? And lastly blogging has caused a number of problems in productivity and company secrecy. So Web 2.0 is a double edged sword that HR has to get a handle on before it gets out of control.

If you are in HR and these terms are unfamiliar to you then you need a lot of education. Even those of you familiar with them need to think of the ramifications of Web 2.0 in your workplace.

The Importance of Environmental Scanning: A Dose of Daily Drucker

I read alot. I get alot of newsletters. I read several blogs on a daily basis. I get alerts from the Feds, SHRM, and several other organizations. I think it is important to know what is going on in the world. It helps me make informed decisions in my daily business as well as in my daily life. SHRM calls that "environmental scanning" and in the material it puts out for PHR and SPHR education it stresses that this is a skill that is important for the strategic HR leader. I agree and in the classes I teach I try to stress how important it is. Many times I skeptical looks and under-the-breath comments about "not having the time."

Today's entry from "The Daily Drucker" lends some credence to my emphasis and personal actions. According to Drucker, "The technologies that are likely to have the greatest impact on a company and an industry are technologies outside its own field." It goes further by saying "Many changes that have transformed enterprises have originated outside the specific industry of that enterprise." He gives several examples, such as the zipper, which had a major impact on the clothing industry was originally for closing bales of heavy goods. No one ever thought it would replace buttons.

By extension we can apply this principle to human resources. The changes that will have major effects on how we deal with people will come from outside the field of HR. It will be social trends, legal trends, technology trends, economic trends, political trends, educational trends, etc. If you are not monitoring these on a regular basis you will have no opportunity to prepare to deal with changes. As usual you will be left to be reactive (the bane of HR) and executive management in your company will continue to see you as the "file cabinet."

So invest some time each workweek to read outside of HR. Review newsletters, blogs (see my list of favorites), magazines, technology items and social happenings to be alert. Take a look at The Futurist, Wired, The Economist, Freakonomics, and more.